Perspectivas de Política Fiscal en Costa Rica: Un Enfoque desde Equilibrio General Computable

This document contributes to the study of computable general equilibrium models applied to fiscal policy. The main objective was to analyze the impact of changes in fiscal instruments—particularly the value-added tax (VAT), income tax (ISR), and public expenditure—on the country’s economic structure, within the framework of the implementation of Law 9635 on Strengthening Public Finances and the fiscal rule. This context is characterized by a fiscal policy focused on expenditure control and fiscal consolidation. To this end, the analysis began with an initial state of the economy and simulations were carried out using the STAGE model. The results indicate that simulations involving adjustments to VAT and income tax yield a contribution slightly above half a percentage point of GDP. In contrast, simulations that include adjustments in government spending show a more significant impact, achieving savings exceeding one percentage point of GDP in both the short and long term. These findings highlight the relevance of simulation models as tools for designing effective fiscal policies aimed at enhancing economic sustainability.