The Priorities of Budgetary and Fiscal Policies in Ensuring the Post-War Recovery of the Ukrainian Economy

The aim of the article is the theoretical substantiation of priority choices, specifically through the identification of effective mechanisms and tools for the implementation of budget and tax policy to ensure the accelerated post-war recovery of Ukraine and the establishment of macro-financial stability in the country. The article summarizes legislative changes in Ukraine’s budget and tax sector regarding the payment of the single tax and military tax for individual entrepreneurs (FOP); it analyzes the dynamics of the number of opened and closed FOPs from 2021 to 2024; it proves the negative impact of tax innovations on the business expectations of domestic economic agents due to the increase in the tax burden. Based on the analysis of the composition and structure of the revenues of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine, factors influencing the dynamics of budget-forming revenues during the martial law were identified; a tendency towards a reduction in the share of tax revenues was revealed due to the low effectiveness of the existing fiscal mechanisms, ranging from the regulation of tax rates and duties to measures for their administration. It is emphasized that there is a lack of appropriate conditions for conducting business activities in Ukraine and effective budgetary and tax mechanisms to stimulate business activity and attract investments in the development of domestic business. The structure of the public debt and State-guaranteed debt of Ukraine for the years 2021–2024 was examined as a component of the State budgetary and tax policy. There was a significant increase in the share of external debt during the period of armed aggression. It is anticipated that in the post-war period, the national government will face issues concerning the servicing of public debt. The interconnection between budgetary-tax and monetary policy of the State in determining the sources of financing the budget deficit has been revealed in the context of their impact on inflationary processes in the country. It is emphasized that there is a lack of proper coordination, which does not contribute to the activation of business activity in Ukraine and the recovery of the economy. Proposals regarding the selection of instruments and mechanisms for implementing the budgetary-tax policy for Ukraine’s post-war recovery are substantiated. It is emphasized that the introduction of initiatives to raise the tax burden on taxpayers should be postponed until peacetime. Under martial law, macro-financial stability should be ensured through budget maneuvering and redirecting budget expenditures to priority needs – the country’s defense capability and social protection of the population. The prospect of future research in this area is to substantiate the selection of budgetary, tax, and debt instruments for the implementation of the budget and tax policy for post-war recovery in order to achieve a synergistic effect from their application.