Forecasting Changes in the Resource Potential of Ukraine’s Socioeconomic Recovery

The aim of the article is to develop scientifically grounded approaches to forecasting changes in the resource potential of Ukraine’s socioeconomic recovery, taking into account external and internal influencing factors. The article is dedicated to the study of forecasting changes in the resource potential of Ukraine’s socioeconomic recovery in the context of the full-scale war that has begun in 2022. An assessment has been conducted of the impact of military actions and migration processes on the key components of resource potential – labor, capital, innovation, and entrepreneurship, with an emphasis on their interaction and role in forming economic growth. It is found that the destruction of infrastructure, occupation of territories, loss of industrial potential, massive migration, and weakening of innovative activity significantly undermine socioeconomic development and make an economic breakthrough impossible. At the same time, the potential for post-war reconstruction has been emphasized, contingent upon technological modernization, effective resource utilization, and the establishment of a conducive institutional environment. The necessity for a comprehensive policy has been substantiated, which encompasses the stimulation of migrant return, the attraction of both domestic and foreign investments, the enhancement of innovative activities through reforms in the scientific sector, and the support of small and medium-sized enterprises as the cornerstone of economic mobility. Recommendations have been put forward for developing strategies for the post-war recovery of Ukraine, aimed at tackling contemporary challenges and facilitating a transition to a model of sustainable development with high added value.