Export performance and forecasting of cashew nut shell liquid (CNSL) in India

This study investigates the export performance of Cashew Nut Shell Liquid (CNSL) from India over the period 1992-93 to 2021-22, utilizing a combination of statistical tools to analyze long-term trends, instability, and future prospects. Data on export quantity and value were examined using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), and Cuddy-Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI) to assess growth and volatility. The findings reveal a declining trend in both export quantity (-0.99%) and value (-0.94%), accompanied by high instability as indicated by CV values exceeding 50% and CDVI scores well above the threshold of 30. A segmented five-year analysis showed that only the 2007-12 and 2012-17 periods experienced moderate stability and positive growth. Country-wise trade analysis identified over-dependence on South Korea, while ARIMA (0,1,2) forecasting projected a continued decline in CNSL exports until 2031-32. The study concludes that India's CNSL sector faces structural challenges and requires diversification, value addition, and supportive policy interventions to restore global competitiveness.