Long-Run Drivers of Road Accidents: Governance and Business Implications of Alcohol, Law Enforcement, Infrastructure and Urbanization

This study investigates the long-run determinants of road accident mortality in the Philippines, focusing on alcohol consumption, rule of law, and infrastructure development from 2000 to 2022. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, results confirm a significant long-run relationship, with alcohol consumption showing a strong positive effect. The error correction model indicates that deviations from equilibrium adjust at a rate of 81% annually. Although short-run effects and other variables such as the rule of law and paved roads were statistically insignificant, their inclusion offers insight into broader governance and infrastructural dynamics. The findings underscore the need for sustained governance interventions and provide actionable implications for the business sector, particularly in transport, logistics, and insurance. Firms are encouraged to adopt safety-oriented strategies such as driver training, compliance monitoring, and telematics technologies. This interdisciplinary study contributes to public health and business research by integrating governance, behavioral, and infrastructural factors into a long-term road safety framework. It emphasizes the shared responsibility of government and private actors in reducing road fatalities through coordinated, data-driven interventions.