Comprehensive Sensitivity Analysis of Hydraulic Fracture Parameters in Deep Shale Gas Reservoirs of the Sichuan Basin

ABSTRACT: This study presents a comprehensive modeling framework that integrates advanced hydraulic fracture simulation with reservoir production forecasting and extensive sensitivity analyses to evaluate long-term production in a deep shale gas reservoir in the Sichuan Basin, Southwest China. A 3D single-well model, incorporating critical rock mechanical properties and a detailed natural fracture network, was developed to realistically simulate fracture propagation under complex in situ conditions. The calibrated fracture geometry was then seamlessly integrated into a production simulation using the Embedded Discrete Fracture Model (EDFM), predicting an Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) of approximately 1.25 x 108 m3 over 20 years, with activated natural fractures contributing about 12% to overall production. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that increasing fracture length and height significantly enhances production - by up to 63% and 53%, respectively - while fracture conductivity shows negligible improvements beyond 5 md-m. Moreover, matrix permeability and porosity were found to be critical parameters, with higher values boosting production by up to 146% and 77%, respectively. These findings provide valuable insights into the interplay between fracture characteristics and reservoir properties, offering guidance for optimizing hydraulic fracturing designs in deep shale gas reservoirs.