Large-scale land acquisitions and land cover change in Ethiopia

Foreign investment in agricultural land, often referred to as large-scale land acquisition (LSLA), presents a complex phenomenon with significant social-ecological trade-offs and synergies, leading to potential lasting ecological impacts. The assessment of these impacts is frequently hindered by limited transparency and insufficient data. Remote sensing offers a vital method for overcoming some of these data challenges by providing comprehensive land cover analysis. This study addressed LSLA in Ethiopia—a frequent target for such investments—using 30-meter resolution time series data to generate national land cover maps for 2006 and 2017. These years are crucial due to the heightened concentration of land acquisition transactions, allowing a comparative analysis of the landscape before and after these transactions. The research examined land cover change (LCC) at LSLA sites based on two databases and assessed trends at the national level, as well as the LSLA and their adjacent lands. A key comparison was made between LCC in areas that underwent implementation after acquisition and areas designated as LSLA but not yet implemented. Findings revealed that the most significant LCC occurred due to the conversion of savanna to forest or cultivation. Notably, conversion to cultivated land was relatively low at LSLA sites (4.2%) and surrounding areas (5.7%) compared to the national average of 12.4%. LSLA parcels and adjacent buffers exhibited higher proportions of LCC in terms of changes in forest and savanna cover. Stability in land cover was present across all areas, irrespective of their conversion status. However, the most pronounced LCC occurred in implemented LSLA sites, with a 14.8% change from savanna to cultivation and 20.7% in adjacent buffers. This study highlights the nuanced nature of land cover changes related to LSLA, emphasizing the need for detailed analysis at various scales and for different types of land use changes.