A CII-oriented ship routing framework based on probabilistic decarbonization compliance

A low-carbon future is inevitable. As part of the global transition, the International Maritime Organization has implemented an ambitious decarbonization strategy since 2011. The Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) serves as a crucial and up-to-date regulatory index for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in maritime transportation. Considering that CII is an annual indicator, there is room for adjustment on a single voyage based on different preferences. A novel cumulative compliance probability of CII is proposed to improve the performance of decarbonization for ship routing. An improved dynamic programming algorithm is applied to ship routing. Different sources of data and models, including weather data, are effectively integrated into the developed ship routing framework. The proposed framework provides intuitive insight into the condition of compliance of CII for ship stakeholders from an annual perspective. The framework is flexible and adjustable based on different preferences and is illustrated with a container ship case. • A novel cumulative compliance probability of CII is proposed for ship routing. • The proposed framework could predict and track the CII rating during the voyage. • Uncertainty of added wave resistance and auxiliary power on carbon emissions is included. • A multi-criteria function based on time preference is established to balance compliance with CII and cost.