Appraisal of Dry Spell and its Associated Implication on Rain-Fed Crop Production: A Case Study of Soil Moisture Requirement for Plant Growth in Jos-Plateau

With an emphasis on the soil moisture needs for optimum plant growth, this study evaluated the effects of dry periods on rain-fed agricultural output in Jos-Plateau, Nigeria. In Nigeria’s highlands with cooler temperatures than surrounding lowlands, where agricultural communities rely significantly on seasonal precipitation, the study fills important knowledge gaps about drought patterns. We examined dry spell trends in six Local Government Areas (LGAs): BarkinLadi, Bassa, Bokkos, Jos South, Mangu, and Riyom, using satellite data from Google earth engine and precipitation data from the CHRS portal covering the years 2014–2023. In light of crop water requirements, dry periods were defined as five days in a row with rainfall of less than 5 mm. Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), and Soil Condition Index (SCI) were among the climatic indices used to calculate the Advanced Drought Response Index (ADRI). Google Earth Engine, Python, and ArcGIS 10.8 were used for temporal and geographical analysis. The findings showed notable differences in the frequency of dry spells over time and space, with October being a consistently troublesome month in all LGAs and falling around crucial late-season crop maturity times. While Bassa showed more endurance with few early-season disruptions, Jos South and Mangu had the worst circumstances, with up to 10 dry period episodes every year.The ADRI study showed a concerning trend from largely favourable circumstances in 2014 to ongoing, severe drought stress by 2020–2023, with a large area of red–orange coverage signifying widespread vulnerability in agriculture. The study has important ramifications for agricultural planning, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptive farming practices, such as improved water conservation methods, location-specific management tactics, and early maturing crop types, to guarantee regional food security.