AN ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE KOSTANAY REGION

The article reveals the key aspects of the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of the economy in the Kostanay region of the Republic of Kazakhstan, with an emphasis on the grain industry, particularly wheat production, as a priority area of regional agricultural development. The study purpose is to conduct a comprehensive economic analysis of changes in climatic conditions and their impact on crop yields, production risks, and the sustainability of agricultural production in the region. The study addresses several key objectives: examining and analyzing climatic trends over the past three decades; assessing the dynamics of gross wheat harvests in the context of climate change; analyzing the influence of various factors on the key performance indicator—wheat yield—over the past 33 years; and substantiating adaptation policy directions in the context of climate instability. An analysis of the natural and climatic conditions of the Kostanay region in the context of climate change is presented. The study reveals the dependence of wheat cultivation on weather conditions—specifically, the amount of precipitation during the growing season, the sum of active temperatures, soil temperature across seasonal periods, and the level of soil moisture supply. The statistical methods used to identify the influence of these factors (weather conditions) on the resulting indicator—wheat yield—are also discussed in detail. The study highlights the critical role of adaptation to climate challenges in shaping sustainable production strategies. The results have practical value for developing scientifically grounded recommendations for adapting wheat cultivation and production to a changing climate.