The impact mechanism and governance of dietary structure upgrading on grain security in China

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China, this paper empirically examines the impact mechanism and governance pathways of dietary structure upgrading on grain security by employing a two-way fixed effects model. The study finds that: (1) Dietary structure upgrading has a significant negative impact on grain security in China, and this finding still holds after multiple robustness tests; (2) Water resources are the mediating path that causes this negative impact, while international trade exhibits a significant positive moderating role in the impact process; (3) Simulation analysis further indicates that China’s current dietary structure still exhibits irrationality when compared to various global dietary health standards, transitioning toward a nutritious and healthy dietary structure could mitigate the pressure on China’s grain security. In terms of overall savings, when simulation scenarios adhere to the primary global dietary guidelines, the total grain savings range from 40 to 120 million tons, equivalent to 7 to 18% of the current total grain production. Consequently, in the context of the continuous upgrading of residents’ dietary structure, emphasizing water resource conservation, efficient utilization of international trade, and advancing rational dietary improvements can offer fresh perspectives and guidelines for formulating polices aimed at reducing the burdens on grain security in China.