Change Management in Aviation Organizations: A Multi-Method Theoretical Framework for External Environmental Uncertainty

In today’s dynamic and highly uncertain environment, organizations, particularly in the aviation sector, face increasing challenges that demand resilient, flexible, and data-driven change management decisions. Responding to the growing need for structured approaches to managing complex uncertainties—geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, social shifts, rapid technological advancements, environmental pressures and regulatory changes—this research proposes a theoretical change management model for aviation service providers, such as airports. Integrating three analytical approaches, the model offers a robust, multi-method approach for supporting sustainable transformation under uncertainty. Normative analysis using Bayesian decision theory identifies influential external environmental factors, capturing probabilistic relationships, and revealing causal links under uncertainty. Prescriptive planning through scenario theory explores alternative future pathways and helps to identify possible predictions, offer descriptive evaluation employing fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, and assess decision quality under vagueness and complexity. The proposed four-stage model—observation, analysis, evaluation, and response—offers a methodology for continuous external environment monitoring, scenario development, and data-driven, proactive change management decision-making, including the impact assessment of change and development. The proposed model contributes to the theoretical advancement of the change management research area under uncertainty and offers practical guidance for aviation organizations (airports) facing a volatile external environment. This framework strengthens aviation organizations’ ability to anticipate, evaluate, and adapt to multifaceted external changes, supporting operational flexibility and adaptability and contributing to the sustainable development of aviation services. Supporting aviation organizations with tools to proactively manage systemic uncertainty, this research directly supports the integration of sustainability principles, such as resilience and adaptability, for long-term value creation through change management decision-making.