Macroeconomic savings from reducing mortality from non-communicable diseases in South-West Asia and North Africa

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) kill 41 million people annually, accounting for 74% of global deaths. The South-West Asia and North Africa (SWANA) region is no exception to this trend. Behavioral risk factors and metabolic characteristics in the region indicate that NCD deaths will rise in the future. This paper estimates the macroeconomic gains for 12 SWANA countries from reducing by one third mortality from the six leading NCDs by 2030, in other words, achieving target 3.4 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for these NCDs. The gains are estimated for 2024–2035 using the WHO-EPIC model for six leading NCDs, while accounting for only hospitalization and outpatient costs as direct financial costs of these illnesses. The model estimates that the net present value of savings from meeting the SDG target for these conditions is US$97 billion (US$69 billion–US$122 billion), which amounts to US$258 per capita (US$184–US$327). Savings per capita are higher in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Savings are close to 0.47% (0.34%–0.6%) of cumulative GDP. At the country level, saving-to-GDP is lowest in the GCC and highest in North Africa. If the target is met by 2035 instead of 2030, the savings would be only slightly lower, at US$92 billion (US$65 billion–US$117 billion) or US$245 per capita (US$174–US$311). There are substantial macroeconomic gains to be taken into consideration when budgeting for investments towards achieving target 3.4. When scaled to government spending on health, these projected gains suggest that the envelope for budget-neutral interventions to reduce NCD mortality is ample.