COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF BANKRUPTCY FORECASTING TECHNIQUES FOR EFFECTIVE CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF AN ENTERPRISE

Currently, the issue of choosing a bankruptcy forecasting methodology for enterprises remains relevant. The relevance of the topic under study is due to the fact that in order to respond in a timely manner to signs of deterioration in the financial condition of an organization, crisis managers need effective forecasting methods that not only identify the risk of bankruptcy, but also determine a set of measures to prevent the realization of this risk or minimize its consequences. Despite the availability of a large number of techniques that make it possible to predict the onset of bankruptcy, many problems remain in this area. The existing methods of analyzing financial statements to identify signs of bankruptcy differ from each other in the goals and objectives of the analysis, the information base, the amount of work, the complexity of calculations, the speed of solving analytical and managerial tasks, and other conditions. In addition, as the experience of practical calculations shows, not all currently existing methods for predicting possible bankruptcy of an enterprise are trustworthy. Practical experience shows that not every technique allows you to get adequate results: the same enterprise can simultaneously be recognized as a hopeless bankrupt, as a steadily developing enterprise, and as an enterprise in a pre-crisis state. This article presents the advantages and disadvantages of various bankruptcy forecasting methods, both governmental and proprietary. In addition, within the framework of this study, a comparative analysis of K-forecast models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy was carried out, and the most significant indicators of the financial condition used in predicting bankruptcy were identified.