Fertility Trends and Determinants in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia (1990–2040): A Longitudinal Analysis

This study aims to analyze fertility trends in North Sumatra Province over the period from 1990 to 2040, based on projection data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik). The primary focus is on the changes in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the Gross Reproduction Rate (GRR), as well as their associations with marriage rates and poverty levels. The findings indicate a sharp decline in TFR from 4.3 to 1.3 and in GRR from 2.50 to 1.62. Despite declining fertility rates, the absolute number of births has increased due to the growing number of women of reproductive age. The decline in fertility is also linked to a reduction in the number of marriages, primarily attributed to rising age at first marriage, improved education, increased female labor force participation, and the influence of regulatory frameworks. Furthermore, improved economic conditions and decreasing poverty levels have contributed to a growing preference for smaller families. In conclusion, fertility dynamics in the region are shaped by a complex interplay of demographic, sociocultural, and economic factors. These findings are expected to serve as a foundation for formulating population policies and planning for sustainable development.