Revised estimates of temperature changes under net zero CO2 emissions
It is critical that climate changes beyond net zero are well understood to inform policymaking. Here we present a new estimate of post-abrupt net zero CO2 temperature changes using a method that filters for variability on multiple timescales. Our findings indicate that 50 years after abrupt emission cessation, the multi-model median temperature change is −0.19 °C, with a range spanning from −0.44 °C to 0.04 °C, which is cooler than previous estimates.
Authors
- Josephine R. Brown (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1100-7457)
- Tilo Ziehn (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9873-9775)
- Alexander R Borowiak (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0499-7800)
- Andrew David King (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9006-5745)
Institutions
- CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere (AU)
- Australian Research Council (AU)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Collaboration for Australian Weather and Climate Research (AU)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- Published
- 2025-07-19
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01148-z
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00
Funders
- National Computational Infrastructure
- Australian Government
- Australian Research Council