Efectos del cambio de uso de suelo y cambio climático en la distribución potencial de la caña de azúcar en el Valle del Chota, Ecuador

Sugarcane is a socio-economically important crop, which is not exempt from internal and external disturbances. This research was carried out at the Chota Valley, one of the sectors where sugarcane is traditionally grown in Ecuador. The aim is to determine the effects of future land cover change on its development until 2031 and the effects of climate change on its distribution for the period 2025-2035 in the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. For this purpose, land use was projected for 2022 and 2031, using land use coverages for 1999-2011 as the base information. Future projections under climate change scenarios were carried out using the agro ecological zoning of crops and changes in tempera- ture and precipitation climate scenarios. The results forecast that due to land use change, sugarcane cultivation will decrease its area by about 14.65 % from 2022 to 2031. However, the research findings under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios for the 2025-2035 period indicate a significant increase in the optimal areas for sugarcane production in equal proportion, mirroring the rise in water availability.