Evaluating Spatio-temporal Dynamics in LULC and its Implications on Land Surface Temperature of Swat valley, Eastern Hindukush

This study focuses on spatio-temporal variability of land use land cover (LULC) and its impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) of Swat valley, eastern Hindukush. Global warming has profound impacts on northern areas of Pakistan. Being the region of a large number of alpine glaciers and snowy peaks, this region is particularly susceptible to climate change. The country’s economy is mainly based on agriculture. However, due to rapid population growth, LULC is changing at the cost of increasing the built environment and deforestation. Rapid urbanization and uncontrolled deforestation are highly contributing to the elevation of average temperature. This rise in temperature results in a decrease in snow cover by accelerating the snow melting process which often results in increasing barren land. Hence, LULC and LST are studied synergistically in this research. This study is based on past one decade and six years’ time series data for 2013, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2023 was taken for detail analysis. For LULC analysis, supervised classification is used by applying Landsat 8/9 (OLI/TIRS) algorithms. Accuracy assessment is carried out for ground validation. LST is calculated by using the Thermal Band and Metadata of Landsat 8/9 (OLI). These parameters were correlated and analyzed by using Pearson’s correlation. The study area has observed considerable change in LULC. Significant growth has been observed in built-up areas from 1545575 km2 in 2013 to 242208 km2 in 2023, with gradual reduction in area under vegetation. The study area has observed increasing trend in LST from 16.5⁰C in 2013 to 26⁰C in 2023. The results of the analysis shows a strong correlation between these parameters.