Bitcoin as a Behavioral Bellwether: Unveiling the Bandwagon Effect and Investor Sensitivity in the NFT Landscape

Abstract This research examines the dynamics of the non-fungible tokens (NFT) market by utilizing key financial metrics such as Bitcoin prices, the Crypto Fear-Greed Index, and DeFi indicators. It analyzes NFT-USD values, the Crypto Fear-Greed Index, total value locked in DeFi, and Bitcoin interactions between February 2021–July 2023. Employing ordinary least squares regression, quantile regression, Johansen cointegration, and VECM Granger analysis, the study uncovers complex relationships shaping the NFT market. The findings reveal a positive correlation between Bitcoin prices and NFT values, a negative relationship between total value locked in DeFi and NFT values, and an inverse connection between the Crypto Fear-Greed Index and NFT values. Additionally, cointegration exists among the variables, and causality analysis indicates that Bitcoin influences total value locked, while shifts in the Crypto Fear-Greed Index reflect market sentiment changes. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of behavioral finance by illustrating how psychological factors, such as investor sentiment and the bandwagon effect, interact with digital asset markets. From a practical perspective, the results emphasize the importance of recognizing these interdependencies for policymakers and market participants striving to foster innovation in the rapidly evolving NFT ecosystem. By aligning with the transformative potential of Blockchain and DeFi, this study provides strategic insights for optimizing resource allocation, enhancing market efficiency, and shaping regulatory frameworks within innovative financial landscapes.