Spatiotemporal evolution and threshold effect of new quality productive forces and territorial space ecological restoration scale

In China, the utilisation of new quality productive forces (NQPF) and ecological restoration have become key priorities for economic and social development. Under the high-quality development context of new quality production and ecological priority, it is of great significance to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of China's NQPF and territorial space ecological restoration scale (TSERS), and to clarify the influence of NQPF on TSERS, so as to facilitate the modernized framework of harmonious coexistence between humanity and nature. Using the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2022, fixed effects, moderating effects and threshold models were used to determine the nonlinear correlation among them. Additionally, geographically and temporally weighted regression models were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of factors. The results show that: (1) The centroid of China's NQPF and TSERS has shifted towards the southeast, exhibiting similar trajectories. (2) The NQPF has a significant positive promotion effect on TSERS with time-lagged impacts. (3) Land green use efficiency (LGUE) played a negative regulatory role in the impact of NQPF on the expansion of TSERS. (4) There was a double threshold for the influence of NQPF on TSERS with LGUE as the threshold variable. The influence of NQPF on the expansion of TSERS gradually decreases after crossing the threshold value. From the perspective of NQPF, protecting, restoring and improving the ecological environment can generate direct ecological productive forces, and also generate potential ecological productive forces. NQPF will certainly promote the large-scale implementation of China's territorial space ecological restoration and stimulate the development of potential ecological productive forces in this nation. The study shows that China's NQPF has a positive promotion effect on the territorial space ecological restoration, and the development of new qualitative productivity is conducive to the promotion of new qualitative transformations in territorial space ecological restoration.