Research on the sensitivity of green agricultural development to the changes of grain production capacity

Based on the comprehensive evaluation method and sensitivity model, the sensitivity of green agricultural development level to the change of grain production capacity from 2010 to 2022 was analyzed with Hubei province as an example. The findings are as follows: (1) The green agricultural development in Hubei presented an "N-shaped" change pattern, that is, the average score of resource utilization and output level decreased and the average score of environmental protection increased. (2) The grain production in the province experienced the stage of "increasing-decreasing-high yield-stable yield", and the average annual output was Central Hubei>Western Hubei>Eastern Hubei. There were different response relationships between grain production capacity and various dimensions of green agricultural development. (3) On the whole, the sensitivity of green agricultural development in the province to the change of grain production capacity decreased first and then increased, the sensitivity of resource utilization to the change of grain production capacity continued to decrease, the sensitivity of environmental protection to the change of grain production capacity continued to increase, the sensitivity of output level to the change of grain production capacity decreased first and then increased, and the number of sensitive areas fluctuated with obvious spatial differences. We should further improve the utilization efficiency of agricultural resources, enhance the capacity of green agricultural development to ensure food security, and optimize the agricultural development pattern.