Spatio-temporal analysis of flood events using GIS and remote sensing-based approach in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Abstract The subject of this research is the analysis of flood dynamics in the Ukrina River Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, using a remote sensing-based approach and geographic information systems during the period 2016–2019. The aim is to identify the spatial and temporal patterns of floods by integrating satellite-derived precipitation data, hydrological data, and Sentinel-1 imagery processed through Google Earth Engine. The methodology included the use of CHIRPS precipitation data and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for identifying meteorological anomalies, while Sentinel-1 SAR data were used to map flood extent based on radar backscatter change detection. The approach combined temporal analysis with spatial overlays of land use and administrative boundaries to assess affected areas. Flood events were identified in January 2016 (89.98 ha), March 2017 (179.85 ha), March 2018 (58.81 ha), and May 2019 (195.38 ha), coinciding with periods of above-average precipitation (>125%), positive SPI values, and elevated water levels. The spatial analysis of flooded areas, overlaid with land use data, revealed that agricultural land was the most affected category, with 79.21 ha flooded in 2016, 169.15 ha in 2017, 48.89 ha in 2018, and 184.90 ha in 2019. Built-up areas were also significantly impacted, posing risks to infrastructure and economic stability. The cities and municipalities of Derventa, Prnjavor, and Stanari were most frequently affected by floods during the study period. The findings highlight the role of cumulative precipitation and hydrological conditions in triggering flood events and provide insights for flood risk management, including adaptive strategies, early warning, and sustainable land use planning.