Spatiotemporal evolution and coupling coordination of multi-objective and multi-dimensional water resources carrying capacity

• Established a multi-objective, multi-dimensional WRCC evaluation system. • Applied EWM-TOPSIS-AISM model to assess WRCC in Western Jilin (2000–2020). • Analyzed drivers of WRCC from water quantity-Water quality-Watershed-Water flow dimensions. • Evaluated coupling coordination among water resource, socio-economic, and ecological subsystems. Changes in water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) are reflected not only in water quantity and quality but also in water ecological space and hydrological characteristics. Moreover, WRCC’s adaptability to socio-economic development and ecosystem stability is a critical indicator of regional sustainable development. Based on this, the study develops a multi-objective (water resource–socio-economics–ecological environment) and multi-dimensional (water quantity–water quality–watershed–water flow) evaluation framework for WRCC in western Jilin. Using an integrated entropy weight method (EWM)-the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution method (TOPSIS)-the Adversarial Interpretive Structure Modeling (AISM) method, the temporal evolution and spatial differentiation of WRCC in ten counties from 2000 to 2020 were assessed. A geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model identified key driving factors across four dimensions. Coupling coordination degree (CCD) analysis examined the coordination among water resource, socio-economic, and ecological subsystems. Results indicate that: (1) WRCC in western Jilin significantly increased over 2000–2020, with spatial disparities widening and a distinct pattern of higher values in the west and lower in the east; (2) The watershed dimension exerts the strongest driving effect on WRCC changes overall, while the influences of other dimensions gradually strengthened over time, showing marked spatio-temporal heterogeneity; (3) The three subsystems exhibit a primary coordination state with significant inter-county variation. Enhancing WRCC requires region-specific strategies that integrate multi-dimensional indicators and improve multi-objective coordination to achieve optimized water resource management and sustainable development.