Construction of Typical Scenarios for Multiple Renewable Energy Plant Outputs Considering Spatiotemporal Correlations

A high-quality set of typical scenarios is significant for power grid planning. Existing construction methods for typical scenarios do not account for the spatiotemporal correlations among renewable energy plant outputs, failing to adequately reflect the distribution characteristics of original scenarios. To address the issues mentioned above, this paper proposes a construction method for typical scenarios considering spatiotemporal correlations, providing high-quality typical scenarios for power grid planning. Firstly, a symmetric spatial correlation matrix and a temporal autocorrelation matrix are defined, achieving quantitative representation of spatiotemporal correlations. Then, distributional differences between typical and original scenarios are quantified from multiple dimensions, and a scenario reduction model considering spatiotemporal correlations is established. Finally, the genetic algorithm is improved by incorporating adaptive parameter adjustment and an elitism strategy, which can efficiently obtain high-quality typical scenarios. A case study involving five wind farms and fourteen photovoltaic plants in Belgium is presented. The rate of error between spatial correlation matrices of original and typical scenario sets is lower than 2.6%, and the rate of error between temporal autocorrelations is lower than 2.8%. Simulation results demonstrate that typical scenarios can capture the spatiotemporal correlations of original scenarios.