Exploring How Climate Change Scenarios Shape the Future of Alboran Sea Fisheries

Climate change is disrupting marine ecosystems, necessitating a deeper understanding of environmental and fishing-related impacts on exploited species. This study examines the effects of physical factors (temperature, thermal anomalies, salinity, seabed conditions), biogeochemical elements (pH, oxygen levels, nutrients, primary production), and fishing pressure on the biomass of commercially important species in the Alboran Sea from 1999 to 2022. Data were sourced from the Copernicus observational program, focusing on the geographical sub-area 1 (GSA-1) zone across three depth ranges. Generalized Additive Models were applied for analysis. Rising temperatures and seasonal anomalies have largely negative effects, disrupting species’ physiological balance. Changes in water quality, including improved nutrient and oxygen concentrations, have yielded complex ecological responses. Fishing indices highlight the vulnerability of small pelagic fish to climate change and overfishing, underscoring their economic and ecological significance. These findings stress the urgent need for ecosystem-based management strategies that integrate climate change impacts to ensure sustainable marine resource management.