Assessing the risk of soil salinization in an intensively irrigated area of Pakistan

Agricultural productivity in the Rechna Doab, an important sub-basin of the Indus River in Pakistan, is declining due to high salinity in the soil. The future progression of soil salinization remains uncertain, and it is challenging to identify which areas are most vulnerable to this process. This uncertainty makes it challenging to develop adaptation strategies that target the key causes in the affected areas. In this study, a novel model for salinization risk is presented that is specifically tailored to the context of irrigated agriculture in the Rechna Doab. This model combines several spatial layers of drivers and risk factors to provide a high-resolution Combined Salinization Risk Indicator. This indicator allows for a spatially detailed analysis of the areas within the Rechna Doab with high risk for future salinization and to derive its main causes. Similarly, areas can be identified where soils are at relatively low risk. The results demonstrate that the lower Rechna Doab is at high risk of losing agricultural productivity due to the characteristics of its groundwater table and limited amount of precipitation. The salinization risk model developed in this study offers valuable insights for agricultural policy making and can be valuable for preliminary risk assessment in other regions with irrigated agriculture.