Research on the synergistic evolution of land use transformation and ecosystem service value in the Anning River Basin

Strategic hub in Panxi Economic Zone, the Anning River Basin faces fragile ecology and significant land governance issues. This study uses the "Production-Living-Ecological Space" (PLES) theory to assess how land use transformation affects ecosystem service value (ESV) and sustainable development. It draws on 1985-2023 land-use data, statistical yearbooks, the modified equivalent factor method, Geo-information TuPu, improved cross-sensitivity analysis (CICS) and optimal parameter geographic detector. the findings: (1) E-P land expanded by 255,893.21 hectares, with a dynamic degree of 29.05%; (2) E-P land supplies > 90% of total ESV (67% from regulating services). Since 2005, ESV dropped 326 M yuan overall, with E-P land declining 766 M yuan. Hotspots are in high-altitude areas; cold spots, in plains; (3) ecosystem services are most sensitive to E-P land conversions, with conversions between P-E land and other types generally lowering ESV; (4) 500 × 500 m Anning River Basin data show that population density influences ecosystem services (q = 0.602) in univariate analysis, with bivariate interactions boosting explanatory power. Findings reveal complex links between land use, ecosystem services, and socio-economic factors in the Anning River Basin, emphasizing the need to consider multiple factors in land management and ecological protection.