Widespread reduction of ozone extremes in storylines of future climate

High ozone levels harm people and the environment, especially during extreme weather. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, exacerbating vegetation-atmosphere interactions. However, current models predict inconsistent responses to warming, potentially due to simplified vegetation representations. We address this uncertainty by incorporating realistic vegetation responses to abiotic stresses into a global atmospheric chemistry model. By constructing storylines of future climate with fixed anthropogenic emissions, we quantify how temperature and humidity changes affect ozone and associated mortality. Here, we show that locally, vegetation and photochemistry often act in concert to amplify ozone pollution extremes, while increased humidity in the free troposphere tends to suppress background ozone levels. The latter effect becomes more dominant with increasing temperatures, leading to a widespread decrease in ozone pollution across the Northern hemisphere. The storyline approach is an effective method for disentangling drivers of air pollution perturbed by climate change.

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Publication Details

Journal
npj Clean Air
Published
2025-08-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s44407-025-00019-4
Citations
4
Primary Topic
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
5.20

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article

Widespread reduction of ozone extremes in storylines of future climate

Sergey Gromov, Andreas Wahner, Michaela I. Hegglin, Domenico Taraborrelli et al.
4 citations
npj Clean Air
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
5.20
article

Widespread reduction of ozone extremes in storylines of future climate

Sergey Gromov, Andreas Wahner, Michaela I. Hegglin, Domenico Taraborrelli, Fuzhen Shen, Tamara Emmerichs
article en
4 citations

Abstract

High ozone levels harm people and the environment, especially during extreme weather. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these events, exacerbating vegetation-atmosphere interactions. However, current models predict inconsistent responses to warming, potentially due to simplified vegetation representations. We address this uncertainty by incorporating realistic vegetation responses to abiotic stresses into a global atmospheric chemistry model. By constructing storylines of future climate with fixed anthropogenic emissions, we quantify how temperature and humidity changes affect ozone and associated mortality. Here, we show that locally, vegetation and photochemistry often act in concert to amplify ozone pollution extremes, while increased humidity in the free troposphere tends to suppress background ozone levels. The latter effect becomes more dominant with increasing temperatures, leading to a widespread decrease in ozone pollution across the Northern hemisphere. The storyline approach is an effective method for disentangling drivers of air pollution perturbed by climate change.

npj Clean AirVol. 1(1)
University of Wuppertal (DE), Forschungszentrum Jülich (DE), Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (DE), University of Reading (GB)
Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 4%
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
5.20
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Widespread reduction of ozone extremes in storylines of future climate — Sergey Gromov, Andreas Wahner, et al. · npj Clean Air (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS