Groundwater Level Estimation Using Improved Transformer Model: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin

Accurate estimation of groundwater levels in river basins is essential for effective water resource planning. Innovations in deep learning and artificial intelligence (AI) have been introduced into this field to enhance the accuracy of long-term groundwater level estimation. This study employs the Transformer deep learning model to estimate groundwater levels, with a benchmark comparison against the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. These models were applied to estimate groundwater levels in the Yellow River Basin, where approximately 1100 monitoring wells are located. Monthly average groundwater level data from the period 2018–2023 were collected from these wells. The two models were used to estimate groundwater levels for the period 2003–2017 by incorporating remote sensing information. The Transformer model was enhanced to simultaneously capture features from both historical temporal data and surrounding spatial data, while automatically enhancing key features, effectively improving estimation accuracy and robustness. At the basin-averaged scale, the enhanced Transformer model outperformed the LSTM model: R2 increased by approximately 17.5%, while RMSE and MAE decreased by approximately 12.4% and 10.9%, respectively. The proportion of poorly predicted samples decreased by an average of approximately 12.1%. The estimation model established in this study contributes to improving the quantitative analysis capability of long-term groundwater level variations in the Yellow River Basin. This could be helpful for water resource development planning in this densely populated region and likely has broad applicability in other river basins.