Trends in global grain and seed trade, Ukrainian position on the global market

The study aimed to comprehensively analyse the Ukrainian grain market during the war and its prospects after its end, as well as an assessment of key trends in the global grain market in 2020-2024. The research methodology was based on the collection of data from reports of international organisations and open sources, their processing through statistical, comparative and forecasting analysis, as well as the synthesis of quantitative and qualitative indicators. The results demonstrated that global production in 2023/24 totalled 789.8 million tonnes of wheat, 1.22 billion tonnes of corn, 149 million tonnes of barley and 57 million tonnes of sunflower seeds, led by China, the US, the EU and Ukraine. The study determined that in Ukraine, the war reduced the area under crops from 15.4 million hectares in 2021 to 9.1-10.2 million hectares in 2024, while yields reduced from 47.8 hwt/ha in 2021 to 38.3 hwt/ha in 2022, before recovering to 43.8 hwt/ha in 2023. The study also determined that exports decreased from 85 million tonnes (in the 2021/22 marketing year) to 46-50 million tonnes (2022/23) but increased to 67.4 million tonnes (2023/24) thanks to the Solidarity Roads and the humanitarian corridor. Analysis of wheat prices determined that the price ranged from 6000-6500 UAH/t (USD 210-230/t FOB) in 2020/21 to 5500-6000 UAH/t (USD 200-220/t) in 2022/23 and 8191-9500 UAH/t (USD 220-250/t) in 2024. The sector's losses included machinery (4.7 billion USD) and irrigation (225 million USD), while logistics costs increased by 30-50%, affecting global prices (12-13 USD per bushel for wheat in 2022, 8-9 USD in 2024). The analysis of the prospects for the development of the Ukrainian grain market after the war found that the restoration of infrastructure worth 29 billion USD, modernisation of elevators, expansion of markets to the EU, Africa and Asia, as well as investments supported by international organisations and the World Bank will return exports to 85 million tonnes and potentially reach 100 million tonnes annually, strengthening Ukraine's role in global food security