TECHNICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SPECULATIONS ABOUT THE POSSIBLE RETURN OF RUSSIAN GAS TO THE EU THROUGH THE US-CONTROLLED INFRASTRUCTURE

The article analyzes the widespread discussions in the international and domestic media since President Trump’s arrival in the White House about the alleged possible resumption of Russian natural gas supplies to the European Union through the existing but inactive infrastructure, which the United States is ready/intends/ would like to put under its control. The author explores the economic and geopolitical background of these discussions, linking them to the long-term strategy of the United States to displace Russian energy resources from the European market. Special attention is paid to the role of American LNG in the EU’s policy aimed at completely eliminating Russian gas by 2027. The research is based on the author’s deep understanding, due to the specifics of his many years of professional and academic work, of practical issues of cooperation between Russia and the EU, on the one hand, and the United States and the EU, on the other, in the energy sector, in which the EU market is a zone of collision of long-term competitive interests of the United States and the Russian Federation. The United States has been trying to resolve these competitive contradictions for a long time using a wide range of methods, including non-economic ones, and was eventually able to achieve, including through administrative and sabotage methods, the gradual elimination of Russian network gas from the EU market. The author critically analyzes media reports, official statements by politicians and representatives of energy companies, regulatory acts, including the US CAATSA law and the EU REPowerEU program, expert assessments, technical and economic data from gas transmission systems (GTS of Ukraine, Nord Stream 2) and the chronology of events. The results of the analysis prove that US initiatives, such as Stephen Lynch’s proposal to purchase Nord Stream 2 or gain control of the Ukrainian and/or Bulgarian GTS, are aimed not at restoring, but at blocking possible Russian gas supplies to protect the interests of American LNG in the EU. The policy of the current EU itself, including 18 packages of anti-Russian sanctions and the REPowerEU program, is aimed at a gradual complete abandonment of imports of any Russian energy resources by 2027. Discussions about the possibilities of transit through Ukraine or the resumption of work of the Joint Venture-2 in the event of US control over them are tactical, distracting and are used as a lever of soft pressure on Russia to quickly freeze the Ukrainian conflict. The author concludes that speculation about the impending acquisition of U.S. control over the Russian gas export infrastructure abroad, ostensibly to return Russian gas to the EU, actually serves as a tool of political manipulation, rather than reflecting the real political, economic, or energy needs of both the United States and Europe itself under its current ruling elites. The United States is not interested in resuming Russian gas supplies to the EU, but in maintaining its own control over the European energy market as a market for LNG produced in the United States. For Russia, misinterpretation of the discussions going on in the international media and expert circles, uncritical interpretation of the statements of politicians creates risks of inflated expectations, which can lead to strategic miscalculations. The article emphasizes the need for a sober assessment of geopolitical and economic realities when planning energy policy, which requires a qualified understanding of the technical, geographical, economic, financial, and legal nuances of the issues under discussion.