Global agricultural yields and trade over the last half century

Global agricultural trade, production, and harvested area have steadily increased between 1961 and 2021. In this paper, we construct, decompose, and compare various measures of global physical crop yield that rely on countries’ crop area, production, and trade weights that vary over time. We document how the composition of exports and imports irrespective of the particular drivers of globalization is skewed towards higher crop yields compared to the changing international patterns of countries’ production as evidenced by the distribution of harvested area and production. We also document how the physical yield of exporting countries has consistently surpassed that of importing countries, indicating as well how a globalized world in which countries can trade and alter the pattern of crop production offers a way to ensure that worldwide higher-yield crops are being consumed. As such, the increasingly globalized agricultural sector with its many drivers of trade substitutes for and/or complements efforts to close the yield gap by upgrading countries crop production methods. For the exercise, we use national-scale data for 60 years from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.