A Study on Insurance Decision-Making Based on Extreme Weather Conditions and Regional Resilience Assessment

In recent years, with the increase of extreme weather events, the financial crisis of insurance companies and residents has become more and more serious, this paper stands in the perspective of insurance companies to provide the optimal choice for the profitability of insurance companies. For the construction of the model, this paper first applies the Poisson distribution to construct the extreme weather forecasting model to describe its probability distribution. Then, in the disaster resilience assessment model, this paper constructs a two-layer assessment index system, and combines subjective and objective values through hierarchical analysis method (AHP) and entropy weight method (EWW). The entropy weight method (EWM) is used to combine subjective and objective values, and the calculation formula is used to derive the regional disaster resistance coefficient. Then, combining the above two models, this paper derives the core index of insurance company's decision-making - payout ratio. The paper also constructs a regional risk index model and a break-even analysis model to determine appropriate policy bands.