The effect of increased student enrolment at Ethiopian universities on graduates' employment prospects and educational quality

Abstract This research investigated how rising enrolment in Ethiopian higher education influenced graduate employability, using education quality as a mediating variable. The researcher distributed surveys to 170 participants, received 153 responses, and conducted interviews with key stakeholders. Higher education enrolment in Ethiopia has undergone significant changes over time. Document reviews indicate a steady increase in enrolment until 2019, followed by a sharp decline from 2020 onward, signalling a concerning trend in student participation. Findings revealed that 38.7% of graduates were unemployed or hadn't yet started their own businesses due to skill gaps, job security concerns, weak economic conditions, and misalignment between academic programmes and labour market demands. The research found that making higher education more accessible significantly reduces both the quality (β = −0.26, p < 0.01) and career chances for graduates (β = −0.23, p < 0.01). The SEM model shows that quality doesn't have much of an effect on employment and only explains a small amount of the variation ( R 2 values of 0.07 and 0.06). This means that other factors are more important in determining a graduate's employability. In general, most respondents believed that high enrolment in higher education institutions (HEIs) degraded education quality and left graduates unprepared for the workforce, posing a risk to national stability. To address this, the government and HEIs should align enrolment with market demand and prioritise job‐oriented programmes. Context and implications Rationale for this study Rapid higher education expansion has sparked worries regarding quality and graduate employability. While enrolment increases access to education, it may strain institutional resources and reduce education standards. Why the new findings matter The findings present a comprehensive framework of policies at both the national and university level, addressing the impact of increasing enrolment that doesn't align with the current resources or capacity of higher education institutions (HEIs), as well as the causes and consequences of graduates not matching the labour market. Implications for practitioners, policymakers, researchers, and the general public Educators and administrators: HEIs should prioritise competency‐based education, skill development, and industry partnerships to satisfy labour market demands. The government should restrict enrolment growth to fit market demand, invest in job‐oriented programmes, and establish regulations to improve graduate employability. Researchers: The study supports additional research on non‐academic factors influencing employment, including labour market policies, entrepreneurship prospects, and economic trends. Students: Earning a degree does not ensure employment. Consider sectors with high demand and pursue additional skill‐building opportunities.