Spatial Distribution of Mangrove Forest Carbon Stocks in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico: Contributions to Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

Mangrove forests are widely recognized for their effectiveness as carbon sinks and serve as critical ecosystems for mitigating the effects of climate change. Current research lacks comprehensive, large-scale carbon storage datasets for wetland ecosystems, particularly across Mexico and other understudied regions worldwide. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a high spatial resolution map of carbon stocks, encompassing both aboveground and belowground components, within the Marismas Nacionales system, which is the largest mangrove complex in northeastern Pacific Mexico. Our approach integrates primary field data collected during 2023–2024 and incorporates some historical plot measurements (2011–present) to enhance spatial coverage. These were combined with contemporary remote sensing data, including Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2, and LiDAR, analyzed using Random Forest algorithms. Our spatial models achieved strong predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.94–0.95), effectively resolving fine-scale variations driven by canopy structure, hydrologic regime, and spectral heterogeneity. The application of Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) revealed the presence of carbon “hotspots,” which encompass 33% of the total area but contribute to 46% of the overall carbon stocks, amounting to 21.5 Tg C. Notably, elevated concentrations of carbon stocks are observed in the central regions, including the Agua Brava Lagoon and at the southern portion of the study area, where pristine mangrove stands thrive. Also, our analysis reveals that 74.6% of these carbon hotspots fall within existing protected areas, demonstrating relatively effective—though incomplete—conservation coverage across the Marismas Nacionales wetlands. We further identified important cold spots and ecotones that represent priority areas for rehabilitation and adaptive management. These findings establish a transferable framework for enhancing national carbon accounting while advancing nature-based solutions that support both climate mitigation and adaptation goals.