Models and methods of analysis and decision-making in problems of control of technological processes in oil and gas production under uncertainty

One of the possibilities for improving oil field development performance is the use of various new technologies in various geological and technical measures (GTM). The choice of geological and technical measures is complicated by the subjectivity of interpretation and uncertainty of data on geological conditions, the current state of field development, expressed multicriteria, multifactoriality, ambiguity, etc. This article provides an algorithm and a corresponding calculation scheme, which provides for data collection, processing, statistical analysis with the construction of models expressing the dependence of the effectiveness indicators of individual geological and technical measures on various factors. The purpose of the research in this article is to improve models and algorithms within the framework of a decision-making system to increase the efficiency of geological and technical measures at an oil production well. The presence of uncertainties determines the importance of using in this case, along with the methods of mathematical statistics, methods that allow for and consider above mentioned the uncertainties. As part of the study, a method allowing to give a predictive assessment of the efficiency indicators of various geological and technical measures in various physical, geological and technical and technological conditions using the example of limiting water inflows was proposed. Also, as part of the research, a calculation scheme for the implementation of geological and technical measures was developed, based on a multi-criteria assessment of their effectiveness, including statistical analysis of factors, assessment of their significance, fuzzy cluster analysis and construction of statistical and fuzzy models. The resulting models allow making decisions under uncertainty and determining the optimal performance of equipmen. Keywords: Technical-technological conditions; geological and technical measures; multi-criteria; cluster analysis; oil recovery.