Cereal crops yield and climate change: a case study

This study investigated vital climate-related and non-climate-related factors on cereal crop yield in Uzbekistan using annual data from 1992 to 2022 with an error correction model (ECM). The findings revealed that temperature positively correlates with cereal crop yield in the short run and CO2 emissions negatively impact yield in the long run. Non-climate factors, such as freshwater withdrawal for agriculture, significantly impact cereal yield. Given the ground reality of Uzbekistan's agriculture, flood irrigation is a typical irrigation mode, so sustainable irrigation practices like drip irrigation/sprinklers should be implemented. Crop diversification to less CO2-emitting crops is essential to dispelling adverse climate shocks.