A new approach to determine the impact of geodynamic stress on oil production in the south Caspian basin

The scientific justification of the geodynamic impact of small and strong earthquakes that occurred in Azerbaijan between 2003 and 2024 on the structural layers within the South Caspian Basin (exemplified by the Bulla-Deniz oil and gas field) has been provided. Based on the epicentral distance distribution of the earthquakes, earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥ 3, that occurred in this structure between 2018 and 2024, were selected. The effect of these earthquakes on the field and the changes in production were analyzed comparatively. In this analysis, only the epicentral distance of the earthquakes was considered, and the potential geodynamic effect of the earthquakes on the field was studied using a different methodological approach. The effect radius corresponding to the earthquake energy distribution and the accumulation time of the potential elastic strain energy were calculated. Based on these calculations, earthquakes that could potentially impact the field were selected, and a table was constructed showing the changes in energy accumulation period and impact distance. Thus, using a new methodological approach, the impact of earthquakes with a magnitude of M≥3 that occurred in Azerbaijan between 2003 and 2024 in the Bulla-Deniz field was determined. In this context, an analysis was conducted to identify the parameters of earthquakes that could cause anomalous variations in the field, taking into account the impact distances of the earthquakes. In the study area, the geodynamic impact and the energy store period of the earthquakes were considered in evaluating their effect on oil production in exploitation wells. Keywords: South Caspian Basin; Bulla-Deniz oil and gas field; earthquake; hydrocarbon-bearing formations; oil production.