Climate-Driven Habitat Shifts and Conservation Implications for the Submediterranean Oak Quercus pyrenaica Willd.

Climate change poses a major threat to forests, impacting the distribution and viability of key species. Quercus pyrenaica Willd., a marcescent oak endemic to the Iberian Peninsula (Portugal and Spain) and southwestern France and a structural species in submediterranean forests, is particularly susceptible to shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns. Aiming to assess its potential loss of suitable area under future climate scenarios, we developed high-resolution spatial distribution models to project the future habitat suitability of Q. pyrenaica under two climate change scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the periods 2070 and 2100. Our model, which has an excellent predictive performance (AUC of 0.971 and a TSS of 0.834), indicates a predominantly northward shift in the potential distribution of the species, accompanied by substantial habitat loss in southern and lowland regions. Long-term potential suitable area may shrink to 42% of that currently available. This, combined with the limited natural dispersal capacity of the species, highlights the urgency of targeted management and conservation strategies. These results offer critical insights to inform conservation strategies and forest management under ongoing climate change.