ASSESSMENT OF RISKS TO THE NATIONAL ECONOMY IN CONDITIONS OF MARTIAL LAW

The article is devoted to the study of the nature of the risks impact on the national economy in conditions of large-scale war, assessing not only the size of the threats impact of the war period but also their pace and determining the relative importance of risks for changing integral indicators. The research revealed a close correlation between the level of economic security and gross domestic product, which indicates the influence of risks on macroeconomic indicators. A mathematical approach is proposed that allows simultaneously taking into account not only deterministic risk parameters, but also stochastic and fuzzy factors. The use of an economic function to determine risks – the amount of economic losses due to the action of military threats and the costs necessary to compensate for the consequences of risks or the cost of measures aimed at neutralizing the consequences of risks – allowed to reduce the volume and time of calculations. Deterministic factors are represented as matrices and interpreted as projections of a tensor. Stochastic factors are represented by mathematical expectation. The most significant component of the integral risk is military risk, therefore the Shannen entropy function is used. The fuzzy set appears as an intuitive (IFS). Next, the relative weight of the risk impact is determined as a vector that is tangent to the response surface in the risk space. The values of the angles are compared with the angle of the base group vector. Such a comparison is possible because a single measurement scale in binary coordinates is used. It is noted that the developed approach will have practical significance not only for determining the impact of risks, primarily war risks, on macroeconomic indicators but also for the work of financial, insurance and other institutions and organizations, which, in turn, will reduce threats to the financial stability of the country’s economy.