State Analysis of Grouped Smart Meters Driven by Interpretable Random Forest

Accurate evaluation of the operational status of smart meters, as the critical interface between the power grid and its users, is essential for ensuring fairness in power transactions. This highlights the importance of implementing rotation management practices based on meter status. However, the traditional expiration-based rotation method has become inadequate due to the extended service life of modern smart meters, necessitating a shift toward status-driven targeted management. Existing multifactor comprehensive assessment methods often face challenges in balancing accuracy and interpretability. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel method for analyzing the status of smart meter groups using an interpretable random forest model. The approach incorporates an expert-knowledge-guided grouping assessment strategy, develops a multi-source heterogeneous feature set with strong correlations to meter status, and enhances the random forest model with the SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) interpretability framework. Compared to conventional methods, the proposed approach demonstrates superior efficiency and reliability in predicting the failure rates of smart meter groups within distribution network areas, offering robust support for the maintenance and management of smart meters.