Strategic foresight: leveraging derivatives and the Johari Window for growth and competitive advantage

Purpose This article centers on advancing strategic foresight through quantitative modeling. The framework promotes future-oriented decision-making using mathematical derivatives to measure change, momentum and volatility. Coupled with the Johari Window, this approach deepens awareness of risks and blind spots often overlooked in traditional planning. The goal is to help firms navigate uncertainty, respond early to shifts and maintain adaptability. Design/methodology/approach This conceptual study introduces a strategic framework combining calculus-based derivatives and the Johari Window model. First, second and third derivatives, representing velocity, acceleration and jerk, are used to assess market dynamics and predict inflection points. The Johari Window enhances this analysis by mapping levels of awareness and risk across known and unknown variables. Apple Inc.'s quarterly revenue data serves as a real-world illustration, applying the model to product launches and growth patterns. Findings The study finds that using derivative analysis in strategic planning, specifically velocity, acceleration and jerk, helps organizations detect early change signals and respond proactively. Combining these insights with the Johari Window improves risk awareness and strategic agility by categorizing known and unknown factors. The Apple case shows how shifts in derivatives reveal key inflection points linked to product launches and consumer behavior. Originality/value This article introduces a strategic model combining calculus-based derivatives and the Johari Window. It replaces static planning tools with dynamic insight into market trends, momentum shifts and hidden risks. First, second and third derivatives reveal changes in growth patterns, while the Johari Window maps awareness and blind spots. The model helps leaders stay agile, manage uncertainty, and maintain a competitive edge.