Low-Bit Quantization Favors Undertrained LLMs

Low-bit quantization improves machine learning model efficiency but surprisingly favors undertrained large language models (LLMs).Larger models or those trained on fewer tokens exhibit less quantization-induced degradation (QiD), while smaller, well-trained models face significant performance losses.To gain deeper insights into this trend, we study over 1500+ quantized LLM checkpoints of various sizes and at different training levels (undertrained or fully trained) in a controlled setting, deriving scaling laws for understanding the relationship between QiD and factors: the number of training tokens, model size and bit width.With our derived scaling laws, we propose a novel perspective that we can use QiD to measure an LLM's training levels and determine the number of training tokens required for fully training LLMs of various sizes.Moreover, we use the scaling laws to predict the quantization performance of different-sized LLMs trained with 100 trillion tokens.Our projection shows that the low-bit quantization performance of future models, which are expected to be trained with over 100 trillion tokens, may NOT be desirable.This poses a potential challenge for low-bit quantization in the future and highlights the need for awareness of a model's training level when evaluating lowbit quantization research.To facilitate future research on this problem, we release all the 1500+ quantized checkpoints used in this work at https://huggingface.co/Xu-Ouyang.