Research on the Measurement and Countermeasures of the Price foam of Newly Built Real Estate Houses in China——Based on Sup ADF (SADF) Foam Test Model

The Central Economic Work Conference proposes to prevent and control asset bubbles, and one of the important issues is the prevention and control of the property market bubble. This paper constructs a theoretical model of asset price bubbles and Sup ADF (SADF) bubble test model through the definition of the connotation of asset price bubbles and the combing of the theory of measuring asset price bubbles. Applying the SADF bubble test model, the bubble test and bubble explosion point estimation were carried out on the time series data of the price index of newly built residential houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities in China from July 2005 to January 2025, and the test results of the frequency of price bubbles in the property market of first-tier cities and the outbreak of price bubbles in the property market of provincial capitals were obtained. Finally, based on the results of this empirical test, it puts forward countermeasures to prevent and control property price bubbles, such as paying attention to the dynamic monitoring of property prices and early warning of bubbles, and establishing a long-term mechanism to promote the development of the property market.