Soil Sealing, Land Take, and Demographics: A Case Study of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania

Soil sealing and land take are increasingly recognised as critical environmental and land use planning challenges across Europe. Although these issues have received limited attention in Baltic policymaking and the academic literature to date, available data indicate ongoing land consumption despite population decline. This study aims to analyse soil sealing patterns in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania between 2018 and 2021 using CLC+ Backbone data, linking them to demographic shifts and local planning frameworks. Results reveal that soil sealing increased in nearly all municipalities across the Baltic states, regardless of population trends. The analysis highlights that shrinking municipalities, constrained by limited resources and declining populations, are structurally disadvantaged in terms of land use efficiency, particularly when measured by sealed area per capita. Moreover, this study discusses emerging policy tensions, including the narrowing conceptual gap between land take and soil sealing in the proposed EU Soil Monitoring and Resilience Directive, as well as the risk of overlooking broader land artificialisation. The findings underscore the need for context-sensitive, multi-scalar approaches to land use monitoring and governance, particularly in sparsely populated and demographically imbalanced regions, such as the Baltic states.