Rethinking the interpretation of spring phenological temperature sensitivity
Recent publications showed a substantial decline in spring phenological responses of temperate trees to temperature increase and suggested this was evidence that warming has caused chilling and/or photoperiod to constrain phenology. We show that the apparent decrease in phenological sensitivity is mathematically expected under warming climates without any constraints from photoperiod or chilling. We substantiate the proposed mechanism using data from controlled conditions, simulations, and a long-term cherry blooming record series.
Authors
- Yann Vitasse (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7454-505X)
- Manuel Walde (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6344-3106)
- E. M. Wolkovich (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7653-893X)
Institutions
- Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH)
- University of British Columbia (CA)
- Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
Publication Details
- Journal
- npj Science of Plants
- Published
- 2025-08-04
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s44383-025-00004-6
- Citations
- 1
- Primary Topic
- Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.11
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung