Climate vulnerability assessment of South African capital cities using multidimensional indicators

Climate change is increasing disaster risk, with its effects varying based on local vulnerability levels. It presents a profound threat to both human communities and natural ecosystems, with urgent adaptation policies needed to increase region’s adaptive capacity and resilience to environmental risks. Using principal component analysis, this paper examines local environmental vulnerability in South Africa, through the dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The results reveal the multifaceted nature of vulnerability to climate change across South Africa's major cities. Cities like Bloemfontein, Cape Town, and Johannesburg exhibit high exposure and sensitivity levels, particularly in recent years, compounded by socio-economic challenges and fluctuating adaptive capacity. In contrast, cities like Mbombela and Pietermaritzburg show high adaptive capacity, providing a buffer against environmental risks and reducing overall vulnerability. Overall, the findings highlight the diverse exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities across major South African cities and provide policymakers with insight into developing sustainable solutions that mitigate the risks associated with regional climate change, ultimately fostering a more resilient urban environment across South Africa.