The Dynamics of European Economic Systems Amid the Russia–Ukraine Conflict: A Cybernetics Approach

ABSTRACT This study analyzes the dynamics of European economic systems in the context of the Russia–Ukraine conflict, employing a cybernetics approach and advanced econometric models. Based on the premise that national economies operate as complex adaptive systems, the study investigates the impact of geopolitical shocks on macroeconomic equilibrium, resilience, and self‐regulation. The methodology integrates panel ARDL models, quantile regressions, and panel Granger causality tests, applied to a sample of nine European countries over the period 1999–2023. The results reveal a heterogeneous impact of the conflict, shaped by the economic development level, trade openness, and the specific structure of each economy. The effects are statistically significant both in the short run and long run, while quantile models indicate higher vulnerability among countries with higher GDP levels. The integration of a qualitative component, social media sentiment analysis, adds interpretative depth by uncovering polarized public perceptions and pronounced behavioral responses. The findings highlight the relevance of a cybernetics perspective in understanding how European economic systems respond to overlapping crises, offering a comprehensive framework for adaptive and differentiated economic policymaking. These results further highlight that economic resilience depends not only on structural factors but also on geopolitical positioning and institutional adaptability, underlining the need for policies tailored to national specificities and each country's role within the European systemic network.