Regional Cooperation for Climate Mitigation: Potential to Slow Future Warming in South Asia

This study examines historical trends and future projections of extreme temperature indices in Bangladesh–India–Myanmar (BIM), a region of critical importance for regional food security and socioeconomic stability. Using ERA5 reanalysis data (1960 to 2019) and an ensemble of 5 corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models under 4 climate scenarios, we project spatial and temporal changes in 8 extreme temperature indices for 2020 to 2100, with a focus on near-term and far-term periods. Our findings indicate a complex trajectory of temperature extremes: while under low-emission scenarios, the frequency of extreme warm events is projected to stabilize or even decline in the far future, overall warming trends persist, and extreme cold events may become more frequent. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios, both extreme warm and cold events are expected to intensify, with India exhibiting the highest interannual variability, Bangladesh showing more stable trends, and Myanmar experiencing an increase in warm extreme frequency. The projected amplification of temperature extremes underscores the urgent need for regionally coordinated adaptation strategies, including climate-resilient agricultural systems, transboundary disaster preparedness, and sustainable water management frameworks. This study highlights the importance of enhanced regional collaboration in climate governance to mitigate shared vulnerabilities and support sustainable development pathways across the BIM region.