Prediction of potential suitable areas for dominant tree species in China under future climate change scenarios

Abstract Climate change is severely threatening global biodiversity and forest ecosystems, thereby affecting the functional traits, geographic distribution and survival strategies of numerous species. This study simulates the potential geographic distribution of five major conifer species and five major broadleaf species in China for the present and three future periods, and analyzes the impact of climate change under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios on the potential distribution of these species. The results indicate that the geographic distribution of conifer species is primarily influenced by the mean temperatures of the warmest and coldest months, as well as the annual temperature range. In contrast, the distribution of broadleaf species is mainly affected by precipitation in the driest month, the warmest quarter and the annual total precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the majority of dominant tree species in China are projected to shift toward higher latitudes and elevations. The suitable habitats for Pinus tabuliformis and Robinia pseudoacacia are projected to expand the most significantly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2081–2100, by 46.18 × 104 and 64.35 × 104 km2, respectively. Picea asperata, Larix gmelinii, Betula platyphylla, and Ulmus pumila are expected to face potential niche contraction and significant habitat loss. The suitable habitat of B. platyphylla is projected to disappear entirely from parts of Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Jiangxi under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2081–2100. This study provides important insights for the scientific formulation of forest conservation strategies and forestry planning in China.